Backing 10/1+
Recommended minimum bank if backing wins 200 points : places 50 points
Had people saying they want to do the Backing 10/1+ but can't because they can't monitor prices near the start of the race. But that doesn't mean you can't do them...do it the way it suits you then.
Yes in a perfect world we would be sat in front of the computer up to the start of the race and back them if they were showing 10/1 to 25/1 in the live show a few seconds before the off but not everyone can do that...even I don't do it for every race because I have so many things on the go...or sometimes a commitment that takes me away from the computer...or sometimes because I'm 7 hours ahead of UK the race is on in the middle of the night.
I'll stress again...I show the RESULTS for these whose Bookmakers' SP is returned 10/1 to 25/1 inclusive. Even if you did monitor prices for every race right up to the off your results will occasionally differ to what I show because a horse may be showing 10/1 as the race is about to start and you back it but it gets returned at SP9/1...so it wouldn't get shown in the results. It will average out over time as there could be one showing 9/1 near the off so you don't back it but it gets returned at 10/1 so will go in the results. It will happen at the other end of the price band too. Perfect example is WONDERSOBRIGHT on February 9th. The last price I saw in the live shows was 25/1 and it won the race...but the Bookmakers returned it at 33/1...Betfair SP was 40.0...so I couldn't include it in the results as I have said 10/1 - 25/1 SP only.
So here is way to back these if you can't sit and monitor prices near the off. It will mean sometimes you'll end up doing some at prices that will end up being returned outside 10/1 - 25/1 but sometimes they are going to win and if you do do it this way you'll occasionally get a winner like WONDERSOBRIGHT!
eg. March 16th>>>
Her 210 PHOENIX EYE; ZORRO DE LA VEGA and JIMMY BEDNEY
When you have the email go onto http://www.oddschecker.com HorseRacing and click on the appropriate meeting.
Look at the 210 and you will see this>>>
Best Odds: Jacks Lad (3) , Glimmer of Light (4) , Phoenix Eye (7) , Guns of Love (10) , Jimmy Bedney (10) , Wishes Or Watches (10) - Others 10 or more
These are the best bookmaker odds available where 7 is 7/1...Others 10 or more means all the other horses in the race are at least 10/1 or greater. You can see PHOENIX EYE is showing 7/1 so leave it...ZORRO DE LA VEGA is not in the list so is at least 10/1 and JIMMY BEDNEY is showing at 10/1. So you back ZORRO and JIMMY on Betfair at SP.
Here's the other race today>>>
Her 340 RIVER INDUS
Her 340 Best Odds: LAventure (5) , New Perk (5) , Chiaro (11/2) , Super Judge (13/2) , Marthas Kinsman (15/2) , Fine By Me (9) - Others 12 or more
RIVER INDUS is 12/1 or more so back it now.
Having now backed the 3 of them their prices could shorten and they start less than 10/1 if other horses get withdrawn or they get supported in the market but it's a risk you will have to take if doing them this way. As I said before sometimes you are going to get winners this way too that won't appear in the results I post. You won't mind if it's like WONDERSOBRIGHT!
17March>>> Precisely what I was describing in yesterdays' "help" message did happen! This is what I wrote>>>
Having now backed the 3 of them their prices could shorten and they start less than 10/1 if other horses get withdrawn or they get supported in the market but it's a risk you will have to take if doing them this way. As I said before sometimes you are going to get winners this way too that won't appear in the results I post. You won't mind if it's like WONDERSOBRIGHT!
...and these are the results you would have had if you had backed based on the early prices>>>
Her 210 ZORRO DE LA VEGA 8-1 won...BFSP 10.79 = +9.30...(place 3.29 = +2.17)
JIMMY BEDNEY 8-1 3rd...(place 3.0 = +1.9)
Her 340 RIVER INDUS 12-1 6th
You would have made 10.37 points profit!!
...and these are the results backing when Bookmakers' SP 10/1 - 25/1>>>
Her 210 PHOENIX EYE 10-1 7th
Her 340 RIVER INDUS 12-1 6th
A 4 point loss...over 14 points difference. So as you can see there there will be times when backing all qualifiers using early prices as the guide in the morning and then switching off the computer pays better than monitoring prices near the start of the race. Backing early is also going to be dependent on exactly WHEN you look at the prices. You could look on oddschecker at 1015 and one we are considering is showing at 9/1 so you don't back it but 10 or 15 minutes later it might have gone out to 10/1 and would become a bet. It will be interesting to see how the 2 ways of doing it compares today as there are a number of potential bets. I intend to use the oddschecker odds at 1030 which is when all the bookmaker odds will be on the site and will have settled down...and if I get the chance to maybe look again at 1pm to see if there is any difference.
The experiment yesterday using early prices proved there is little difference backing early or waiting until near the off>>>
These were the best bookmaker odds showing on oddschecker at 1030
Kem 230 DIEGO VELASQUEZ 16/1 and FIRE AND RAIN 16/1
Exe 240 CAPTAIN BECKETT 16/1; MASJOOR 10/1; DESERT STORM 11/2 and BOLLITREE BOB 22/1
Kem 340 MENDO 12/1; SHANNON SPRINGS 14/1; OWLESBURY DREAM 16/1 and BUSTER COLLINS 50/1
Exe 350 ROYAL HILARITY 8/1; WEATHER PERMITTING 9/1; BOLD PUNT 13/2; ATHERSTONE HILL 33/1; JUST ABOUT 9/1 and KILLING ME SOFTLY 25/1
Exe 425 DUTCH BILL 40/1 and SUDDEN ARRIVAL 33/1
Kem 450 COCKATOO 16/1; MAJOR MILLER 12/1; SPANISH CONQUEST 5/1 and HATCH A PLAN 40/1
Which would mean if you had backed then the qualifiers would have been if backing only the ones showing 10/1 - 25/1 inclusive>>>
Kem 230 DIEGO VELASQUEZ 4th 16/1 and FIRE AND RAIN won 16/1
Exe 240 CAPTAIN BECKETT 16/1; MASJOOR 10/1; BOLLITREE BOB 22/1
Kem 340 MENDO 2nd 12/1; SHANNON SPRINGS 6th 14/1; OWLESBURY DREAM 10th16/1
Exe 350 KILLING ME SOFTLY 3rd 25/1
Exe 425 no bet
Kem 450 COCKATOO 16/1; MAJOR MILLER 12/1
At 1pm you would have backed these...2 extra in the 350.
Kem 230 DIEGO VELASQUEZ 12/1 and FIRE AND RAIN 14/1
Exe 240 CAPTAIN BECKETT 5th 14/1; MASJOOR 9th 10/1; BOLLITREE BOB PU 20/1
Kem 340 MENDO 2nd 12/1; SHANNON SPRINGS 14/1; OWLESBURY DREAM 16/1
Exe 350 ROYAL HILARITY 10/1; WEATHER PERMITTING 10/1; KILLING ME SOFTLY 25/1
Exe 425 no bet
Kem 450 COCKATOO 16/1; MAJOR MILLER 12/1;
So if backing at 1030 you would have backed 11; at 1pm 13...but at both times you would still have caught FIRE AND RAIN; KILLING ME SOFTLY and COCKATOO.
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LayingFemales
The recommendation is to lay only between 2/1 and 7/1 Bookmakers' SP at the off. If you can't lay in that price range then it's recommended to leave it. There will always be another one but of course if you wish to lay outside the price band that is your choice. They are still getting beat but when you start laying above 8.0 you are entering an area where it becomes harder to recover after a losing lay and you can be giving prices above the true chances of the horse winning. If you are using a bot to lay I would set it to lay only between say 3.2 and 8.8.
If you're unable to lay before the start of the race there is always the inrunning option as it may fall inside the recommended price range during the race although all results are shown only for horses that started the race between 2/1 and 7/1. This is where the "Keep" function on Betfair is useful...means you can put up a request to lay the horse at an acceptable price to you before the race starts and it automatically sits there waiting to get matched even when the races switches to InPlay so you can go and do important things like walk the dog or shopping and not have to sit in front of the computer. Be warned though, if you put up a Keep request and then there is a horse withdrawn before the start of the race, then your offer price gets reduced by whatever the Reduction Factor is for the withdrawn horse.
The method used to select the lays pinpoints horses that have race conditions stacked against them. Obviously they are all female horses we are laying in mixed sex races.
Recommended staking is to lay to win 1 point so if you were to lay at a maximum of 8.8 the most you would be risking is 7.8 points. I would recommend a bank of 50 points so if your bank is £500 you would lay to win £10 per horse. Occasionally we will have a BANKER lay where I recommend a double stake of 2 points.
Results for LayingFemales to date are posted here>>> http://www.onlineoffersforyou.com/forum
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Daily Email
Please don't email me saying you haven't received it. I keep pointing out that email is unreliable and is often delayed or undeliverable and that hotmail/aol addresses are by far the worst to deliver to. I send you the email TWICE a day from two different emails to increase your chances of actually receiving it and I also mail it to myself so I can see if it is getting through or not.
Anyway you really only need to receive the email to get any password changes for the "Daily Email" thread as the daily email is also posted there as backup.
The "forum" itself is READ ONLY. You cannot post on it and you don't need to log in to read it. The ONLY time you need to log in is to read the Daily Email here>>> index.php where you get asked only for a password. There is no username.
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Security issues
Get used to the password changing several times a month. Furthermore the information is for your eyes only. Do not pass it on to anyone else. Anyone found to do so will have their membership cancelled immediately. It is not in your interest to have a lot of people getting this information and all wanting to lay or back the same horses. That is why I do not want many subscribers...50 maximum...just enough to make it worth my time. I only ever take on enough members to make it worth my time doing this as I make a living from my own betting and have done for over 20 years. I actually do the tipstering because I enjoy the challenge of it but it does take up a lot of time.
If you see anyone posting selections for any of the above claiming to know what the selection method is then they are lying because I am the only one who knows them and I have never put them on paper. There are too many variables that nobody could possibly work them out either. Also if you see anyone reselling the information please report it to me so I can take action. It is in your interest to do so.
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